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Cyclone could form tonight off Queensland coast - BOM

Bom forecast model cyclone path Feb 11 11am 2016
Bom forecast model cyclone path Feb 11 11am 2016

Update: THE latest advise from the Bureau of Meteorolgy about the low off the Queensland Coast is that it could form into a cyclone tonight.

At 10 am AEST Thursday, a Tropical Low with central pressure 999 hPa was located over the central Coral Sea near latitude 16.5 south longitude 157.2 east, which is about 990 km east northeast of Mackay and 1220 km east of Cairns.

The low is moving east at about 10 kilometres per hour, and a curve onto a southeasterly track is expected through the remainder of today into Friday.

This is likely to take the system out of the Queensland region late on Friday or Saturday morning.

It is considered quite likely that the system will continue to slowly develop and it may become a tropical cyclone overnight tonight or Friday morning.

The system is located well offshore and expected to move further away; it does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.
 

UPDATE 9AM: Cyclone Tatiana could form off the Queensland coast tomorrow, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. 

Bureau spokesperson Jess Carey told The Morning Bulletin modelling suggested a 20-50% chance of a cyclone being identified off Queensland today and a more than 50% chance of a system being named tomorrow. 

Mr Carey said the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre used different criteria to the bureau to identify cyclones, which is why the joint United States Navy and Air Force command had already named the system. 

"We've got the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre monitoring everything closely and if anything changes we'll update the website," he said. 

 

"(The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) have different criteria to us and that's why they've named the system and we haven't."

Although there is a high chance Cyclone Tatiana will be named tomorrow, Mr Carey said current modelling showed the system continuing to move away from the coast. 

"The modelling suggests the system moving away from our coast so the risk posed is quite small at this stage," he said.

Mr Carey said the only affects which may be felt from the system were higher swells along the southern Queensland coast, but these were still not expected to be significant. 

He said at this stage there was no suggestion the system would move back towards the coast. 

"It's very unlikely that any part of the Queensland mainland will be affected by the system," Mr Carey said.  

Cyclone near Vanuatu and possible cyclone off Queensland
Cyclone near Vanuatu and possible cyclone off Queensland

EARLIER: Joint Typhoon Warning Center data suggests a cyclone has formed off the Queensland Coast. 

A forecast path of Cyclone near Vanuatu on Pacific Disaster Centre website
A forecast path of Cyclone near Vanuatu on Pacific Disaster Centre website

However, tracking maps issued by the centre indicate the system will not cross the coast. 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre is a joint United States Navy and Air Force command at Pearl Harbour,

The Bureau of Meteorology is being contacted for further information on the system.