Reef watchers say Garnaut half-right

2nd October 2008

PROFESSIONAL reef diver Robert Freitag and CQUniversity Ph D candidate Alison Jones believe The Garnaut Report's predictions on the impact of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef are only half the story.

In his 700-page report, Professor Garnaut said if nothing was done to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the Reef's coral and other organisms would be "effectively destroyed" by the increased temperatures by 2100.

Garnaut said even with a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions to 450 parts per million, mass coral bleaching would still be twice as common in 2100 as it is today.

Mr Frietag, who has operated Capricorn Reef Diving for 25 years, is not a scientist, but from his own observations he believes the coral reefs of the Keppels have shown remarkable resilience despite a severe bleaching incident in 2006 a symptom of climate change.

"In my view, a lot of the reef here, even after the recent floods, is still in pristine condition," Mr Freitag said.

"Yes there are stresses on the reef, but it has the strength to still be there in 2100, if we keep the measures to ensure it stays 8resilient."

He said the continued management of the Reef through green zones was one way to take pressure off areas hit hard by bleaching, allowing them to improve their resilience.

Capricorn Conservation Council co-ordinator Alison Jones questions the estimates of impact in Garnaut's report and believes an emission reduction target of 450ppm is too high. She said the only way to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the Reef was to stabilise carbon emissions.

Ms Jones said that from the scientific facts in her study on the bleaching of Keppel's corals in 2006, she found that about 37% of the live hard coral was lost.

She said while many reefs were untouched, others lost 90% of their coral cover, but she added that much of the coral lost had been regained. She said there were no measures to ensure the reefs remain in 2100.

"The problem is that we are on the cusp of more frequent episodes of bleaching hotter temperatures in summer and more extreme weather events are predicted to occur and in fact, may already be occurring around the world," she said.

"Environment groups agree that the emissions target of 450ppm of CO2 is too high and would like to see this reduced to 300-325ppm."

She also questioned the international agreement target of 2013 "why should we wait?"