BOM suggests possibility of El Niño breaking down

THE PRAYERS of farmers who've struggled in this long-lasting drought could be answered early next year with the possibility of heavy rainfall following the current El Niño.

According to Bureau of Meteorology senior climate liaison officer Dr Jeff Sabburg El Niño events tend to break around the February/March period.

"El Niño events tend to begin in autumn, mature during winter and spring, then begin to decay in summer, with the event generally ending in the autumn of the following year," Dr Sabburg said.

"With this particular El Niño, international climate models suggest the peak in El Niño sea surface temperatures is likely to occur before the end of the year, then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016. We originally said it was going to rapidly decline in early 2016 but it's now predicted for more of a gradual decline.

"It has it been six months since El Niño was declared and we're currently looking at the history of past El Niño events to predict what could happen," Dr Sabburg said.

"Of the 26 El Niño events since 1900, about 10 were followed by a La Niña event which is a period of above-average rainfall but every El Niño is different so we have to wait a few more months for a clearer picture."

Today's weather:

  • Top of 32 degrees with a 5% chance of rain throughout the day.
  • UV Index predicted to reach extreme levels.


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