Is CQ on track to vote 'no' in Same-Sex Marriage survey?
Central Queensland could be poised to deliver a 'no' vote on marriage equality if the results from ABC's Voter Compass were replicated in the Same-Sex Marriage postal survey.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics started sending out survey forms to 16 million Australians on Tuesday, inviting them to answer a "yes” or "no” question: "Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”
Vote Compass is a democratic engagement tool used by the ABC which provides valuable insights into what Australian voters think about key issues around the election.
Between May 2016 and July 2016, Vote Compass asked 770,394 Australians a similar question to the marriage equality survey - whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement: "Marriage should only be between a man and a woman”.
Although the majority of Australian people indicated support for allowing same-sex couples to marry (55%), Queensland was the most conservative state on this issue featuring the top five electorates for lowest support.
There is a strong chance Central Queensland people could vote 'no' with support for marriage equality with Capricornia at 48%, Flynn 44%, along with North Queensland's Kennedy 46% and Central Western's Maranoa at 42% - the area most opposed in the country, consistent its reputation as "Australia's most conservative seat”.
Political scientist Shaun Ratcliff said there was a clear national-wide statistical trend towards larger population centres being more supportive of the marriage equality cause.
"There's a distinct 'inner city versus the rest' pattern,” he said.
"Outer suburban areas and rural areas tend to be more conservative on this issue.”
He said although these statistics are useful as a guide, they aren't able to provide a truly accurate picture of how the country will vote in a voluntary postal survey on same-sex marriage with differing motivations to be involved.